Condo Sellers Outnumber Buyers 2 to 1: What the Record Gap Means for You

Redfin reported on November 9, 2026 that condo sellers outnumbered buyers nationwide by an estimated 123% in September, the widest gap in its records going back to 2013. Texas and Florida lead the list: San Antonio at 459%, Houston at 322% and Miami at 274%. That hands buyers real negotiating leverage. It also means some of those listings come from buildings facing a structural assessment, an insurance spike, or financing problems. The listing price shows what the seller wants, and the building's documents show what you would be signing up for.

Redfin's latest report put a number on what agents have felt for two years: there are far more people trying to sell condos than buy them. The national figure is Redfin's estimate, and the imbalance is widest in Texas and Florida. If you are a buyer, that sounds like good news, and in many ways it is.

The trap is assuming a soft market means every deal is a deal. A Florida condo can be 20% off its 2022 price and still be the worst purchase you ever make, because the discount is often the market pricing in a repair bill the seller already knows about. After the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida forced aging buildings to inspect their structures and fund their reserves, and the resulting assessments can run into six figures per unit. Some sellers are reacting to the market, and others are leaving a building with a bill already on the way.

This guide breaks down what the data really shows, why the glut is happening, how much leverage you actually have, and the exact documents that separate a real bargain from a money pit.

What the Redfin Data Actually Says

Redfin estimates condo sellers outnumbered buyers by 123% in September 2026, the widest gap since 2013, up from 95.5% a year earlier.

Redfin published the analysis on November 9, 2026. It estimates there were 197,248 condo sellers and 88,460 buyers nationwide in September, which works out to 123% more sellers than buyers. The buyer count is Redfin's own estimate, built from the typical time between a first tour and closing plus MLS data on listings and pending sales. The seller count is active MLS listings. Redfin puts the number of buyers at the lowest level in at least 13 years. In September 2021 there were 25.1% fewer sellers than buyers.

Redfin calls a market a buyer's market when sellers exceed buyers by more than 10%. Only one metro among the 50 analyzed, Nassau County (NY), was a clear seller's market in September (buyers outnumbering sellers by more than 10%), and Milwaukee (WI) and Newark (NJ) were roughly balanced. Among the 50 most populous metros, the widest gaps were in Texas and Florida:

For comparison, here is how Redfin's August 2025 report showed the Florida metros, when the national surplus was about 72%:

The pressure shows up in prices. Florida ended 2025 with a condo-townhouse median of $310,000, down 4.7% year over year, while single-family prices held nearly flat, according to Florida Realtors. Condo inventory hit 8.8 months of supply against just 4.6 months for single-family homes, a clear buyer's market by the commonly cited four-to-six-month benchmark. Some metros fell much harder: Redfin recorded condo price drops of more than 30% in Deltona and 19% in Tampa in a single year. We dig into the broader slide in why condo prices are falling in 2026. Before you read any metro percentage as a discount on a specific building, ask the listing agent for the association's current budget and latest reserve study.

Texas Now Has the Widest Seller Surplus

San Antonio (459%), Houston (322%), Miami (274%) and Austin (258%) have the widest seller surpluses among the 50 largest metros, Redfin reports.

If you are buying a condo in Texas, the same leverage applies. Redfin says rising insurance premiums, HOA fees and special assessments are making condos increasingly expensive to own, particularly in Florida and Texas, where hurricane risk and other natural disasters have contributed to higher insurance costs. That is Redfin's reading of the market, and it describes a cost problem a buyer can check in a specific building.

Derrell Skillman, a Redfin Premier agent in San Antonio, told Redfin that buyers there often choose a house when the monthly payments are close. He listed HOA costs, financing restrictions, builder incentives, softer investor demand and the slowdown after military moving season as contributors. That is one agent's account of one market.

A seller surplus gives you room to ask for a lower price, and it says nothing about what the building will charge you after closing. Before you negotiate, ask for the current budget, the latest reserve study and any assessments voted or under discussion, then run the reserve study through our free reserve study tool. Lenders look at the same documents, and our guides to the 2026 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac condo rules and the 15 percent reserve rule explain what a lender will ask about. If you are choosing between two buildings, comparing their documents side by side shows which discount is real. For how a specific building's numbers apply to your purchase, ask a real estate attorney.

Why Florida Condo Sellers Are Flooding the Market

Post-Surfside inspection and reserve laws, an aging building stock, and soaring insurance have pushed owners to sell before the bills land.

The pressure comes from a regulatory and cost shock hitting an old building stock all at once. More than half of Florida's roughly 1.5 million condo units, about 900,000, are older than 30 years, and close to two-thirds of units could be affected by the state's new inspection laws, per TD Economics. Three forces are converging:

• Mandatory structural inspections. After the Champlain Towers South collapse killed 98 people in 2021, Florida required milestone inspections for buildings three or more habitable stories tall once they reach 30 years of age (or 25, where the local building official requires it because of conditions such as nearness to salt water). These inspections routinely uncover deterioration that triggers major repairs.
• Reserves that can no longer be waived. For decades owners voted to keep dues low by underfunding reserves. The Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) law ended that for structural components, with the first studies due by December 31, 2025 for most buildings (some have until the end of 2026). Underfunding now converts directly into dues hikes or assessments.
• Insurance costs. Florida condo-unit insurance premiums rose more than 50% in four years, reaching about $2,000 statewide and $2,300 in Miami-Dade by the end of 2024, according to research from Florida International University's Metropolitan Center.

Stack rising dues, surprise assessments, and insurance spikes on top of each other, and many owners decided to sell before the bill arrived. That is the supply side of the imbalance. The demand side is buyers who have read the headlines and are wary of inheriting someone else's repair bill. For the full picture, see the 2026 Florida condo crisis. If you are looking at a Florida building, ask the association for its SIRS report and the date of its last milestone inspection before you make an offer.

What a Buyer's Market Means for Your Leverage

With months of supply well above normal, buyers can negotiate on price, ask for concessions, and take time on due diligence without losing the deal.

When inventory runs at nearly nine months and listings sit, the leverage shifts hard toward buyers. In May 2025, Redfin found condos in West Palm Beach were selling about 7% below asking after a typical 107 days on the market. Nationally, condos took 46 days to sell, the slowest May since 2015. A property that sits is a property whose seller is getting nervous.

Practically, that means you can:

• Negotiate below asking. Under-asking offers that would have been laughed off in 2021 are now normal, especially on units that have been listed for months.
• Ask for assessment credits. If the building has a pending or approved special assessment, you can ask the seller to pay it at closing or credit you the amount. Knowing it exists is what gives you the standing to ask.
• Take your time on due diligence. You are not competing with ten other offers. Use the breathing room to actually read the building's documents before you remove contingencies.
• Use Florida's resale cancellation window. For non-developer resales, Florida law gives buyers 7 days, not counting weekends and legal holidays, to cancel after signing and receiving the declaration, financials, and other governing documents. If the building has a SIRS or a milestone inspection report, those are on the same 7-day clock. If you already had those documents more than 7 such days before you signed, the window does not apply (Fla. Stat. §718.503(2)(d) and (e)).

Use that same leverage to walk away from the wrong building entirely: if the documents show an unfunded SIRS or a pending assessment, the discount is not worth taking.

The Catch: A Cheap Condo Can Hide a Six-Figure Liability

A discounted unit can hide a special assessment far bigger than the savings. Owners in some Florida buildings have faced assessments of more than $100,000 per unit.

Here is the math that catches buyers. A unit listed $60,000 below its old peak looks like a bargain. But if the building just approved a structural assessment that lands a $100,000 bill on your unit, the $60,000 discount is gone and you are $40,000 behind.

Assessments at that scale are not hypothetical. At The Cricket Club, a building in North Miami, owners faced a proposed special assessment of nearly $30 million building-wide, to fund roof replacement and facade waterproofing, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and Axios Miami. One owner who bought his unit for $190,000 in 2019 ended up selling for $110,000, a 42% loss, rather than pay the assessment. That is exactly the kind of unit that shows up in the discount listings driving these seller-to-buyer numbers.

This risk is rising because of the no-waiver rule. For budgets adopted on or after December 31, 2024, an owner-controlled association that needs a SIRS can no longer vote to underfund its structural reserves (Fla. Stat. §718.112(2)(f)). A building that historically kept dues artificially low by skipping reserves now faces funding it cannot avoid, and that money has to come from somewhere: higher dues, a loan, or a special assessment. A clean-looking, low-dues budget on an older building is now a reason to ask for the SIRS and the reserve balance. We cover the mechanics in what owners can do about a SIRS assessment and special assessment red flags.

How to Tell a Discounted Condo From a Distressed One

Pull and read the SIRS, milestone inspection, reserve study, recent meeting minutes, budget, and estoppel certificate before you remove contingencies.

The documents tell you whether the discount reflects a soft market or a sick building. For any Florida condo three or more habitable stories tall, work through this list:

• SIRS report (Fla. Stat. §718.112(2)(g)). Due by December 31, 2025 for most buildings; a building that is also due for its milestone inspection by the end of 2026 may finish the SIRS with it, but no later than December 31, 2026. Confirm it exists, ask for its completion date, and see which of the components it covers (roof, structure, waterproofing and the rest) are underfunded. A missing SIRS, or one past its deadline, is a red flag by itself.
• Milestone inspection report (Fla. Stat. §553.899). Look for a Phase Two finding, which means an engineer identified substantial structural deterioration and major repairs are likely. See Florida milestone inspections in 2026.
• Reserve study and current balances. Compare reserves to what the study recommends. A wide gap signals coming dues increases or an assessment. Our free reserve study tool flags percent funded and special-assessment risk automatically.
• Meeting minutes, 12 to 24 months. This is where assessment votes, loan discussions, litigation, and insurance non-renewals show up before they hit the budget. See 7 meeting-minutes red flags.
• Current budget and any pending or approved special assessments. Read every line item, because the dues figure alone hides the pieces.
• Estoppel certificate ( Fla. Stat. §718.116(8)). The association must issue it within 10 business days of a request, and it discloses every amount owed on the unit, including special assessments.

If reading a 60-page reserve study or a year of meeting minutes feels like too much, that is the gap our tools were built to close. For a buyer-side walkthrough of the whole process, see the complete condo buying checklist for 2026.

The Financing Trap: Fannie Mae's Ineligible List

A distressed building can fail Fannie Mae's standards, making conventional financing hard to get. New 2026 and 2027 rules tighten the screws further.

Even if you are comfortable with the building, your lender may not be. Fannie Mae maintains an internal list of condo projects it considers ineligible for the loans it backs, flagged for things like critical structural repairs, inadequate reserves, deferred maintenance, high delinquencies, or insufficient insurance. The Wall Street Journal and legal experts tracking that confidential list have counted roughly 1,400-plus Florida buildings on it, with nearly half in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, as reported by Mortgage Professional America. Fannie does not publish the list, so a building's status is something your lender or condo-approval specialist has to check.

The rules are also getting stricter. Fannie Mae's Lender Letter LL-2026-03 retires the streamlined "Limited Review" for projects over 10 units as of August 3, 2026, and raises the minimum reserve allocation from 10% to 15% of budgeted income for loan applications dated on or after January 4, 2027. A building with thin reserves that squeaked through before may not qualify next year. That affects your financing now and your future buyer's financing when you sell. We break it down in the 2026 Fannie and Freddie condo rules and what a non-warrantable condo means. Before you make an offer, ask your lender whether the building meets current project standards and is not on Fannie Mae's ineligible list.